Compare Designs Under Constraints

Find the assumptions under which the model helps

BOTIE

Calculate avoided miss loss for every supplied cost scenario, then subtract the added inspection cost. Keep the full list of savings.
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Examples, experiments and workspace controls
Live values

Connect a tool's inputs to see what it produces. You can try a branch before connecting it to Result.

Try your own inputs

Use a copy of the example to try your own data. Keep the problem's assumptions in mind, and predict the effect of a change before checking the output. You can also add another branch to compare two ways of doing the calculation.

Start at an output arrow, then click or drag to an input. Drag empty space to pan. Delete removes a selection. Ctrl/Cmd+Z undoes a change.
Context for this challenge

Calculate avoided miss loss for every supplied cost scenario, then subtract the added inspection cost. Keep the full list of savings.

Botie's model may avoid misses while adding inspections. Whether it helps depends on the still-uncertain consequence assigned to a missed fault.

Multiply avoided misses by the miss-cost list, then subtract the added inspection cost from every scenario.

Examples and results
Estimated misses avoided
2
Additional inspections
5
Cost per inspection
4
Miss cost scenarios
  1. 05
  2. 110
  3. 220
Required result
  1. 0-10
  2. 10
  3. 220
Estimated misses avoided
0
Additional inspections
3
Cost per inspection
4
Miss cost scenarios
  1. 05
  2. 110
  3. 220
Required result
  1. 0-12
  2. 1-12
  3. 2-12
Try a fresh construction

This clears this draft, including its undo history. Earlier successful attempts stay recorded. Build again without opening hints to record an independent attempt.

Stuck? Inspect a worked construction

The tools below form one possible solution. You can assemble it, follow its signals, and undo that change to return to your own construction.

Assumptions and test precision

These are conditional estimates, not confidence bounds. Policy effects, upkeep, and relationships between uncertain inputs need separate evidence. Numerical tests allow a difference of 0.001. Lists and structures must also have the right shape.

What is avoiding a missed fault worth?

This check uses the pieces from “Keep every miss-cost scenario visible”.

BOTIE

Botie's proposed change avoids three missed faults but requires eight additional inspections, each costing 5 units. Calculate its net savings for missed-fault costs of 10, 20 and 50 units. Positive values mean the change saves resources under this cost model.
Estimated misses avoided
3
Additional inspections
8
Cost per inspection
5
Miss cost scenarios
  1. 010
  2. 120
  3. 250

Use a number, text, or an array matching the requested result. For a matrix, put each row in brackets. Saving your prediction runs your current construction on these inputs and checks the earlier examples too.

Build a construction in the workspace above first. This case will test those pieces.

Which uncertain quantity is most worth measuring if the preferred policy changes across these scenarios?

A sensitivity range is conditional on assumptions; it is not a confidence interval for the policy's effect.

These are conditional estimates, not confidence bounds. Policy effects, upkeep, and relationships between uncertain inputs need separate evidence.

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